Regression

Scatterplots

A scatterplot displays the relationship between two quantitative variables measured on the same individuals. The explanatory variable ($x$) is plotted on the horizontal axis and the response variable ($y$) on the vertical axis.

Interpreting Scatterplots

When describing a scatterplot, address:

1. Direction: Positive association (both increase), negative association (one increases while the other decreases), or no association
2. Form: Linear, curved, or no pattern
3. Strength: How closely the points follow a pattern (strong, moderate, weak)
4. Outliers: Points that fall far from the overall pattern

Explanatory vs Response Variables

• Explanatory variable (independent variable, predictor): The variable that may explain or predict changes in the response variable
• Response variable (dependent variable): The variable that is being predicted or explained

Not all relationships imply causation, even when the explanatory variable precedes the response variable in time.

Correlation

The correlation coefficient ($r$) measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two quantitative variables.

$r = \frac{1}{n-1} \sum \left(\frac{x_i - \bar{x}}{s_x}\right)\left(\frac{y_i - \bar{y}}{s_y}\right)$

Properties of $r$

• $-1 \leq r \leq 1$
• $r = +1$: Perfect positive linear relationship
• $r = -1$: Perfect negative linear relationship
• $r = 0$: No linear relationship (but there may be a nonlinear relationship)
• $r$ is not affected by changes in the centre (adding a constant) or scale (multiplying by a positive constant) of either variable
• $r$ is not resistant to outliers
• $r$ only measures linear association; it does not capture curved relationships
• The correlation does not depend on which variable is called $x$ and which is called $y$
• Units of measurement do not affect $r$

Calculating $r$

$r = \frac{\sum(x_i - \bar{x})(y_i - \bar{y})}{\sqrt{\sum(x_i - \bar{x})^2 \cdot \sum(y_i - \bar{y})^2}}$

Least-Squares Regression

The least-squares regression line (LSRL) minimises the sum of the squared vertical distances (residuals) between the observed data points and the line.

Equation of the LSRL

$\hat{y} = a + bx$

Where:

• $b = r \cdot \frac{s_y}{s_x}$ (slope)
• $a = \bar{y} - b\bar{x}$ (y-intercept)

Interpreting the Slope and y-Intercept

• Slope ($b$): For each unit increase in $x$, $\hat{y}$ is predicted to increase (or decrease) by $b$ units, on average. Always include “when $x$ increases by 1 unit” and “predicted $y$ changes by $b$.”
• y-Intercept ($a$): When $x = 0$, the predicted value of $y$ is $a$. This interpretation is only meaningful if $x = 0$ is within the range of the data.

Prediction

The LSRL gives the predicted value $\hat{y}$ for a given $x$. Predictions are most reliable for values of $x$ within the range of the original data (extrapolation beyond the data is risky).

Residuals

A residual is the difference between the observed value and the predicted value:

$e_i = y_i - \hat{y}_i$

• A positive residual: the point is above the regression line (actual $>$ predicted)
• A negative residual: the point is below the line (actual $<$ predicted)
• The mean of the residuals is always $\approx 0$ (by definition of least squares)
• The sum of squared residuals ($\sum e_i^2$) is minimised by the LSRL

Residual Plots

A residual plot displays residuals ($e_i$) on the vertical axis and the explanatory variable ($x_i$) or the predicted values ($\hat{y}_i$) on the horizontal axis.

Interpretation:

• If the regression line is a good model, the residual plot shows a random scatter of points with no pattern around the horizontal axis ($e = 0$)
• A curved pattern in the residual plot indicates a nonlinear relationship
• A fan shape (increasing spread) indicates non-constant variance (heteroscedasticity)
• Outliers in the residual plot are points with large residuals

Coefficient of Determination ($r^2$)

$r^2 = \frac{\text{variation in } \hat{y}}{\text{variation in } y} = 1 - \frac{\sum e_i^2}{\sum(y_i - \bar{y})^2}$

$r^2$ represents the proportion of the variation in $y$ that is accounted for by the linear relationship with $x$.

• $r^2 = 0$: The LSRL explains none of the variation in $y$
• $r^2 = 1$: The LSRL explains all of the variation in $y$
• $r^2 = 0.85$: 85% of the variation in $y$ is explained by the linear regression on $x$

Interpretation

“Approximately 85% of the variation in [response variable] can be accounted for by the linear relationship with [explanatory variable].”

Outliers and Influential Points

Outliers

A point with a large residual (far from the regression line). An outlier in the y-direction.

Influential Points

A point that, if removed, would significantly change the slope and/or y-intercept of the regression line. Influential points typically have extreme x-values (leverage points), even if their residual is not large.

An influential point may or may not be an outlier. Always check the effect of removing a point on the regression equation.

Transformations

When the relationship between $x$ and $y$ is not linear, a transformation of one or both variables may produce a linear relationship.

Common Transformations

• Logarithmic: $y' = \ln(y)$ or $x' = \ln(x)$ — useful for exponential growth/decay
• Square root: $y' = \sqrt{y}$ — useful for count data with increasing variance
• Reciprocal: $y' = 1/y$ — useful for hyperbolic relationships
• Power: $y' = y^p$ for some power $p$

Strategy

1. Make a scatterplot of $y$ vs $x$
2. If nonlinear, try transformations of $x$, $y$, or both
3. Re-examine the scatterplot and residual plot after transformation
4. Choose the transformation that produces the most linear pattern with random residuals

Out-of-Context Extrapolation

The LSRL should only be used to make predictions for values of $x$ within the range of the observed data. Extrapolating beyond this range is unreliable because the linear pattern may not hold.

Correlation vs Causation

A strong correlation between two variables does not imply that one causes the other. The relationship may be due to:

• Confounding variables: A third variable related to both $x$ and $y$
• Common response: Both variables respond to a third variable
• Coincidence: Random chance producing a strong correlation in a particular sample

Establishing causation requires a well-designed experiment with random assignment, not just observational data showing correlation.

Inference for Regression Slope

On the AP exam, you may be asked to test whether the slope of the population regression line is significantly different from zero:

$H_0: \beta_1 = 0 \quad H_a: \beta_1 \neq 0$

$t = \frac{b_1 - 0}{SE_{b_1}} \quad \text{with } df = n - 2$

Common Pitfalls

• Confusing correlation with causation
• Using the regression line to extrapolate far beyond the data
• Interpreting $r^2$ as a percentage “explained” without proper context
• Forgetting to check residual plots for nonlinearity
• Confusing outliers (large residuals) with influential points (high leverage)
• Using correlation when the relationship is clearly nonlinear